First-half arrivals fell 2.0%, yet Tokyo hotels held occupancy: the visitor mix is now the underwriting variable

上半年訪日旅客按年減2.0%，東京酒店入住率仍然守住：客源結構成為測算的關鍵變數

Published 7 October 2026 as part of the Weekly Market Review series, a retrospective review of each week since May 2026.本文於2026年10月7日發表，屬「每週市場回顧」系列，逐週回顧2026年5月以來的市場。

Data released in the week of 20 July 2026 and the days before it gave the first complete half-year reading on inbound travel to Japan. Arrivals in January–June 2026 were 2.0% below the 2025 record pace, with mainland China down by more than half while South Korea, Taiwan and the US grew. Second-quarter visitor spending was flat, and Tokyo still recorded the highest hotel occupancy in Japan. For Tokyo hotel investors, the half-year says less about the size of demand than about its composition — and composition is what future buyers of stabilised hotels will test.

2026年7月20日當週及之前數日公布的數據，為訪日旅遊提供了首個完整的半年讀數。2026年1至6月訪日旅客人次較2025年的紀錄水平低2.0%，中國內地旅客減少逾一半，韓國、台灣及美國則錄得增長。第二季旅客消費大致持平，東京的酒店客房入住率仍為全國最高。對東京酒店投資者而言，這份半年成績表反映的與其說是需求規模，不如說是需求結構——而結構正是未來收購穩定營運酒店的買家會檢驗的重點。

1. JNTO estimates 21.08 million visitor arrivals to Japan in January–June 2026, down 2.0% year on year; June alone was 3.15 million (−6.8%), even though 15 markets set June records (preliminary figures).
2. The visitor mix rotated sharply: first-half arrivals from mainland China fell 56.4%, while South Korea rose 18.6%, Taiwan 20.9% and the US 7.1%; second-quarter visitor spending was ¥2.51tn, up 0.2% (preliminary).
3. Tokyo hotels held up — April occupancy was 78.7%, the highest in Japan — but rate growth slowed, so hotel income now depends more on which visitors arrive than on how many.

1. 日本政府觀光局（JNTO）估算，2026年1至6月訪日旅客為2,108萬人次，按年減少2.0%；單計6月為315萬人次（按年減6.8%），但仍有15個市場創6月新高（均為初步數字）。
2. 客源結構明顯轉換：上半年中國內地旅客按年減少56.4%，韓國、台灣及美國分別增長18.6%、20.9%及7.1%；第二季旅客消費額為2.51兆日圓，按年增0.2%（初步數字）。
3. 東京酒店表現穩住——4月客房入住率78.7%，為全國最高——但房價升幅放緩；酒店收入愈來愈取決於「來的是哪些旅客」，而不只是「來了多少人」。