Before the H1 tallies: a record first quarter, a 29-year-high JGB yield and cross-border money in Shinjuku

上半年數據公布前：首季投資額創紀錄、長期利率29年新高，跨境資金入主新宿

Published 7 October 2026 as part of the Weekly Market Review series, a retrospective review of each week since May 2026.本文於2026年10月7日發表，屬「每週市場回顧」系列，逐週回顧2026年5月以來的市場。

The first-half investment tallies from JLL and CBRE were not published until late July and early August, so in the week of 6 July 2026 investors were working from first-quarter data and live market signals. Those signals pulled in two directions. The 10-year JGB yield touched 2.830%, its highest since May 1997, while a Singapore-based manager bought a 206-room hotel in Shinjuku for a hospitality fund backed by global pension capital. We review the latest volume data available that week, the foreign-capital share and Tokyo's position, and, with hindsight, what the first-half releases later confirmed.

仲量聯行（JLL）及世邦魏理仕（CBRE）的上半年投資數據要到7月下旬及8月初才公布，因此在2026年7月6日當週，投資者只能依據第一季數據及即時市場訊號判斷。這些訊號方向分歧：10年期國債收益率一度升至2.830%，為1997年5月以來最高；同時一家新加坡基金管理人為其有全球退休金資金參與的酒店基金，購入新宿一間206室酒店。本文回顧當週可得的最新投資額數據、海外資金佔比及東京的地位，並以事後角度檢視上半年數據其後證實了甚麼。

1. In the week of 6 July the first-half tallies were not yet out. The latest quarterly data (CBRE, 11 May) showed a record first quarter of ¥2.043 trillion, with overseas investors buying ¥774 billion, about 38% of the total, and hotel volume up 33%.
2. The cost of capital moved the other way: on 6 July the 10-year JGB yield touched 2.830%, the highest since May 1997, leaving Tokyo hotel NOI yields of about 4.2% only around 1.4 points above it.
3. Cross-border hotel capital stayed active: a Singapore-based manager bought the 206-key Citadines Central Shinjuku Tokyo for its Japan hospitality fund (announced 8 July). With hindsight, JLL's first-half tally was a record ¥3.75 trillion, 30% from overseas investors and 66% in Tokyo.

1. 7月6日當週，上半年數據尚未公布。當時最新的季度數據（CBRE，5月11日）顯示第一季投資額創同期紀錄，達2.043兆日圓；海外投資者購入7,740億日圓，約佔38%；酒店投資額上升33%。
2. 資金成本卻反向而行：7月6日10年期國債收益率一度升至2.830%，為1997年5月以來最高，東京酒店約4.2%的NOI收益率與之僅相差約1.4個百分點。
3. 跨境酒店資金仍然活躍：一家新加坡基金管理人為其日本酒店基金購入206室的Citadines Central Shinjuku Tokyo（7月8日公布）。事後回看，JLL的上半年統計創3.75兆日圓紀錄，海外投資者佔30%，東京佔66%。