US REITs at mid-year: lodging up 42.8% and yielding below Treasuries — what it means for buyers of Tokyo hotels

美國REIT年中檢視：酒店板塊升42.8%、股息率低於美債——對東京酒店買家意味著甚麼

Published 7 October 2026 as part of the Weekly Market Review series, a retrospective review of each week since May 2026.本文於2026年10月7日發表，屬「每週市場回顧」系列，逐週回顧2026年5月以來的市場。

In the week of 29 June 2026 Nareit's mid-year review showed US equity REITs up 14.9% in the first half, with lodging and resorts the best-performing sector at 42.8%. At end-May the lodging index yielded 4.11%, below the 10-year Treasury, while J-REITs yielded almost 5% at a discount to NAV and Tokyo hotel cap rates were around 4.1–4.2%. The same week brought a stronger Tankan reading for hotel and restaurant operators and the final approval of Tokyo's switch to a 3% accommodation tax from 2027. We compare how different pools of capital price hotel income and what that implies for exits from Tokyo.

2026年6月29日當週，Nareit年中回顧顯示美國權益型REIT上半年上升14.9%，酒店及度假村板塊以42.8%居首。5月底美國酒店REIT指數股息率為4.11%，低於10年期美債；同期J-REIT收益率接近5%並以NAV折讓交易，東京酒店資本化率則約為4.1%至4.2%。同一週，日銀短觀顯示住宿及餐飲業景氣改善，東京都亦取得總務大臣同意，於2027年起改行3%定率住宿稅。本文比較不同資金如何為酒店收入定價，以及這對東京酒店退出的含意。

1. Nareit (2 July): the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index returned 14.9% in the first half of 2026; lodging/resorts returned 42.8% year to date and 12.0% in June; the 10-year Treasury closed June at 4.44%.
2. Pricing gap: at end-May US lodging REITs yielded 4.11% against a 4.45% Treasury, while J-REITs yielded 4.98% at 0.84x NAV. US listed capital is paying for hotel growth; Japanese listed capital is pricing for income.
3. Tokyo backdrop: the June Tankan lifted the business conditions index for large accommodation and food-service firms 12 points to +46, though firms expect +34 next; Tokyo's 3% accommodation tax (from April 2027, stays under ¥13,000 per person exempt) received ministerial consent on 30 June.

1. Nareit（7月2日）：富時Nareit全權益型REIT指數2026年上半年總回報14.9%；酒店及度假村板塊年初至今42.8%，6月單月12.0%；10年期美債6月底收報4.44%。
2. 定價差距：5月底美國酒店REIT股息率4.11%，低於4.45%的美債收益率；J-REIT收益率4.98%、NAV 0.84倍。美國上市資金為酒店增長付費，日本上市資金則按收益定價。
3. 東京背景：6月短觀中，大型住宿及餐飲服務業景氣指數上升12點至+46，但企業預期下季回落至+34；東京3%定率住宿稅（2027年4月起，每人每晚13,000日圓以下免稅）於6月30日取得總務大臣同意。