China falls below 9% of arrivals, yet Tokyo hotels still raise rates: revenue management follows the new mix

中國旅客佔訪日比例跌破9%，東京酒店仍能提價：收益管理須跟隨新客源結構

Published 7 October 2026 as part of the Weekly Market Review series, a retrospective review of each week since May 2026.本文於2026年10月7日發表，屬「每週市場回顧」系列，逐週回顧2026年5月以來的市場。

The inbound data digested in the week of 22 June 2026 showed a sharp change in who is visiting Japan. JNTO's May estimate, released on 17 June, put arrivals 3.6% lower, with mainland China down 60.4% but 19 markets at May records. Hotel REIT disclosures published on 25 June showed room rates still rising where hotels could capture Golden Week leisure demand, while Osaka hotels exposed to Chinese demand cut prices sharply. Our reading is that revenue management is shifting from chasing volume to managing mix: holiday calendars, source markets and price discipline now matter more than any single market.

2026年6月22日當週市場消化的訪日數據，顯示旅客結構出現明顯轉變。日本政府觀光局（JNTO）於6月17日公布的5月推算，訪日人次按年下跌3.6%，其中中國內地下跌60.4%，但有19個市場創5月新高。6月25日公布的酒店REIT月度數據顯示，能夠承接黃金週休閒需求的酒店仍在提價，而依賴中國客源的大阪酒店則大幅減價。我們的理解是，收益管理正由追求入住量轉向管理客源組合：假期日曆、客源市場及價格紀律，比任何單一市場更重要。

1. JNTO estimated 3,559,900 visitor arrivals in May 2026 (−3.6%, preliminary). Mainland China fell 60.4% to 313,000, about 8.8% of the total against 21.4% a year earlier, while South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong together made up about half of all arrivals.
2. Japan Hotel REIT's 29 variable-rent hotels lifted May RevPAR 7.9%, driven by a 6.6% rise in ADR as Golden Week leisure demand was sold at high rates despite reduced travel from China.
3. Star Asia REIT's May data showed the split: central Tokyo hotels raised ADR (Ginza 1-chome +9.6%) while two Osaka hotels cut ADR by 22.5% and 40.7%, and higher airline fuel surcharges were already weighing on some inbound group bookings.

1. JNTO推算2026年5月訪日人次為3,559,900（按年−3.6%，初步數字）。中國內地下跌60.4%至313,000人次，佔總數約8.8%（去年同期21.4%）；韓國、台灣及香港合共約佔一半。
2. Japan Hotel REIT旗下29間浮動租金酒店5月RevPAR上升7.9%，主要由ADR上升6.6%帶動——即使中國旅客減少，黃金週休閒需求仍以高價售出。
3. Star Asia REIT的5月數據顯示分化：東京都心酒店提價（銀座一丁目ADR +9.6%），兩間大阪酒店ADR則下跌22.5%及40.7%；航空燃油附加費上調亦已影響部分入境團體訂房。