April arrivals fall 5.5% as mainland China drops 57% — but visitors from all other markets rise 6.9%

4月訪日旅客跌5.5%，中國內地大減57%——但其他市場合計增長6.9%

Published 7 October 2026 as part of the Weekly Market Review series, a retrospective review of each week since May 2026.本文於2026年10月7日發表，屬「每週市場回顧」系列，逐週回顧2026年5月以來的市場。

JNTO’s April 2026 estimate, released on 20 May, showed visitor arrivals down 5.5% year on year, with mainland China down 56.8% after Beijing advised its citizens to avoid travel to Japan. The headline hides a more useful picture: arrivals from all other markets combined rose by about 6.9%, South Korea and Taiwan together supplied over 40% of visitors, and much of the fall in European and Australian arrivals reflected the earlier Easter. For Tokyo hotels, the lesson is that demand has changed composition rather than disappeared — and that business plans and exit valuations should be built on the markets that are growing, not on a quick return of Chinese travel.

日本政府觀光局（JNTO）5月20日公布的2026年4月估算顯示，訪日旅客按年減少5.5%，其中中國內地在北京呼籲國民避免赴日後減少56.8%。但總數掩蓋了更有用的資訊：中國內地以外市場合計約增長6.9%，南韓及台灣合共佔訪客逾四成，而歐洲及澳洲旅客的跌幅大多源於復活節提前。對東京酒店而言，啟示是需求在改變結構而非消失——營運計劃及退出估值應建基於正在增長的市場，而不是假設中國旅客短期回流。

1. April arrivals were 3,692,200 (−5.5%, preliminary), still the highest month of 2026; January–April totalled 14,375,800 (−0.5%). Mainland China fell 56.8% to 330,700, and its share of arrivals dropped from 19.6% to 9.0%.
2. Excluding mainland China, arrivals rose about 6.9% in April and 14.6% in January–April (our calculation). South Korea (+21.7%) and Taiwan (+19.7%) together supplied 41.2% of April visitors; nine markets, including the US, set April records.
3. Calendar effects matter: combining March and April removes most of the Easter shift — total arrivals −1.3%, the US +5.3%, the UK +1.9% and Germany +1.7% — so underwriting should look through single months and model a diversified, China-light demand base.

1. 4月訪日旅客3,692,200人次（按年跌5.5%，初步數字），仍是2026年單月最高；1至4月累計14,375,800人次（跌0.5%）。中國內地減少56.8%至330,700人次，佔比由19.6%降至9.0%。
2. 撇除中國內地，4月訪日旅客約增長6.9%，1至4月增長14.6%（本刊計算）。南韓（升21.7%）及台灣（升19.7%）合共佔4月訪客41.2%；包括美國在內共九個市場創4月新高。
3. 日曆效應不可忽視：合併3月及4月計算，大部分復活節錯期影響被抵銷——總數跌1.3%，美國升5.3%，英國升1.9%，德國升1.7%——因此測算應跳出單月數字，以多元化、低依賴中國的需求基礎建模。