US 10-year at 5.28%, JGBs above 3.1%: Tokyo hotel exits are now priced on the spread over each buyer’s own risk-free rate

美債10年期升至5.28%、日債突破3.1%：東京酒店退出開始按「買家各自無風險利率之上的息差」定價

In the week to 8 October 2026, long-term interest rates rose on both sides of the Pacific: after the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 7 October, and the 10-year JGB reached 3.111%. Listed REITs absorbed the shock — the TSE REIT Index is down 18% this year and US equity REITs fell 5.7% in September — yet a 16-hotel Japanese portfolio was reported to have been bought by a Singapore sovereign fund for about ¥125bn. Our reading is that exit pricing for Tokyo hotels is increasingly set by the spread each buyer can earn over its own risk-free rate and cost of funds, which favours long-term and currency-hedged capital over listed REITs that rely on issuing new equity.

截至2026年10月8日的一週，太平洋兩岸的長期利率同步上升：聯儲局9月加息後，美國10年期國債收益率於10月7日收報5.28%，日本10年期國債收益率升至3.111%。上市 REIT 首當其衝——東證 REIT 指數今年累計下跌18%，美國股權 REIT 9月下跌5.7%；然而一個由16間酒店組成的日本組合，據報仍由新加坡主權基金以約1,250億日圓購入。我們的理解是，東京酒店的退出價格，愈來愈取決於每個買家能否在自身的無風險利率及資金成本之上賺取息差；這個環境有利於長線資金及有貨幣對沖的資金，而非依賴增發新單位融資的上市 REIT。

1. Risk-free rates rose together: the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 7 October and the 10-year JGB at 3.111%, while Singapore’s 10-year yield stood at 2.49% on 1 October.
2. Listed REITs absorbed the shock: the TSE REIT Index closed at 1,649.05 on 8 October, 18.1% below its end-2025 level, with an average dividend yield of 5.59%; US equity REITs fell 5.7% in September, although lodging was the only sector to rise (+0.7%).
3. Long-term capital kept buying: a 16-hotel Japanese portfolio sold by KKR was reported to have gone to Singapore’s GIC for about ¥125bn — on average roughly ¥7.8bn per hotel; the price has not been officially confirmed.

1. 無風險利率同步上移：聯儲局於9月16日把目標區間上調至3.75%–4.00%；美國10年期國債收益率10月7日收報5.28%，10年期日債為3.111%；新加坡10年期收益率10月1日為2.49%。
2. 上市 REIT 首當其衝：東證 REIT 指數10月8日收報1,649.05點，較2025年底低18.1%，平均分配金收益率5.59%；美國股權 REIT 9月下跌5.7%，但酒店是唯一上升的板塊（+0.7%）。
3. 長線資金繼續買入：KKR 出售的16間日本酒店組合，據報由新加坡政府投資公司（GIC）以約1,250億日圓購入，平均每間約78億日圓；價格未獲正式確認。