After rate rises, Tokyo hotel valuations must be rebuilt from NOI and DSCR

利率上升後，東京酒店估值要從 NOI 與 DSCR 重新計算

Demand for Tokyo hotels remains firm, but investment judgement is getting stricter. With borrowing costs approaching 2%, the price a hotel can command is increasingly set by how much debt its NOI can support — not only by ADR, occupancy or exit cap rates.

東京酒店市場仍有需求支撐，但投資判斷正在變得更嚴格。當借款利率接近2%，酒店可承受的價格，越來越取決於其 NOI 能支撐多少借款，而不只是 ADR、入住率或退出 Cap Rate。

1. Valuation is shifting from LTV to DSCR: in one market model, a rise in borrowing costs from 1.0% to 2.0% cut the debt capacity of a ¥3.0bn, 100-room Tokyo hotel from ¥1.88bn to ¥1.70bn.
2. Economy hotels still run at high occupancy (82.7% across 13 listed brands in April–June 2026), but ADR growth is slowing — revenue management now matters more.
3. Multi-occupancy and longer-stay products are becoming a core feature of new Tokyo supply, while J-REITs remain the key reference for exit pricing.

1. 估值重心由 LTV 轉向 DSCR：在一個市場模型中，借款利率由1.0%升至2.0%，令東京一間100室、30億日圓酒店的借款上限由18.8億降至17.0億日圓。
2. 經濟型酒店仍維持高稼動（2026年4至6月，13個上市品牌平均82.7%），但 ADR 增長放緩，收益管理變得更重要。
3. 多人入住及中長期住宿產品正成為東京新供給的核心賣點；J-REIT 仍是退出定價的重要參照。